Friday, January 22, 2010

Mutual Fund of the year 2010 ? By the numbers ...


In 2009, about 10 mutual funds thats worth looked into were selected out of 530 choices in Malaysia.

Today lets take a look at how they performed in the past 6 months. Below chart shows their respective return in percentage. From past 1 day, past 1 week, past 1 month etc.



The actual percentage return is NOT important here. We are comparing fund performances across different fund managers. What we are looking for is a graph that consistently stay above the others. That would give an indication of "consistently outperform the others".

The most apparent winner is OSK Equity Fund and the worst is Public Ittikal. However, this does not imply anyone of them is better than another. The market has been trending up generally. OSK is well verse in stock market and therefore able to catch most of the up trend. Public Ittikal on the other hand only deals with halal and safe instruments. You can be assured that both of these funds are very strong in their fundamentals.

However, one clear message from this chart is that we can take TA away from this list. As you may see, their chart patterns show as if they have no clue how the market will move and don't even have any good strategies in their fund management. They are supposed to be as good as OSK.

So if you think the market is continue to be bullish, exercise DCA on OSK-UOB Equity Trust. Else if you prefer safer haven, try AMB Ethical Trust and Public Saving.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

KLSE Technical 2010-01-21


I have stopped stock market talks for a while based on comments received in the past. But about 20% of the old readers unsubscribed following that. So I am guessing there may still be some silence readers who love stock market talks. And I feel very itchy not to share my view seeing that no one else publishes my opinions. So pardon my incidental randoms.

As some may have known by now that KLSE is damn HOT now! Axiata, PBBank, KYM, RCECAP, LIONDIV, LIONIND, MBSB, AFG etc. all shoot up 8-12% in a day. This has happened since 2 days ago KLSE finally broke its 1300 ceiling after 10 months of 'recovery'.

Things are indeed great. But you may want to know a few things;

Despite higher closing price, MORE number of stocks are dropping THAN rising, 2 days in a roll. This may imply that only a few stocks are being speculated. Investors may even withdraw from other stocks in order to join the hot stocks growth. This also shows that there is NOT ENOUGH investment money flowing within the market now. So whatever the reasons are for the up swing, its NOT going to be able to keep it for long.


There has been a "closing up swing pattern" for the last few months. This shows that certain parties are manipulating the open and closing price so that certain trends are shown in technical analysis (so that other fund managers will join in the game). This is not totally a bad thing but if you are not following what these big boys are doing, its very likely that you don't catch their next moves.

According to Bollinger Band (20d, 2), KLCI is hitting its top band soon ie. 1315 by 25 Jan. So correction is coming very soon. Tomorrow is going to be a red day, if it goes on the day after, then the correction will be confirmed and it will be a good news where you can start accumulating again.

All the other indicators also show that there may only be another 10-20% room for growth in the next month or so.

So what should you do ?

Well, the heat is not going to fade away that fast neither. Tomorrow will be a red day. If you pick some stocks up, you may still be able to get 10-20% gain by February.

If you have already kept some, you may want to plan to profit take when it goes up another 5-10% in the next 2 weeks.

If you don't plan to profit take within the next couple of months anyway, the next obvious chance would be in Q4.

What are the jewels now if you haven't bought any yet ? Well, I have only concluded KNM and BAT for now. Keep KNM for these 2 months and BAT until year end.

Avoid warrants and all derivatives at all cost now!

How do I know tomorrow is going to be a red day ? Well, I just keep my eye on how the whole world market is going before ours are opened ... http://stock.malpf.com/

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Mortgage vs Loan


Very often the terms mortgage and home loan are used interchangeably. Although it might not cause big harms but understanding the difference may bring positive impact to your personal finance ie. in Property Investment.

In fact, mortgage is the opposite of loan.

When you need extra money, someone can lend you some and in return they gain profit when you repay them. The lender may ask for collateral like your house so that if you don't repay them, they can take possession of your house, sell it and still earn a profit by doing so. They give you a loan.

If you have something valuable and you want to exchange it temporary for some money, you can prove to people how valuable your possession is and why should they give you money for it. You get your money if the lenders are satisfied their interests will be taken care of. You have just mortgaged your belongings.

Loan is a lender's contract,
mortgage is a borrower's contract.

At one instance, it may seems the same. Its just a story told from different angles. But if you think for a moment as a borrower, do you want to follow your lender's contract or should you come up with your own's ?

If you start thinking the whole money borrowing thing from your own angle and for your own interest, you may just come up with some unique and interesting arrangements.

Items that can be mortgaged are not limited to your own properties. If you are holding some collaterals from other people, you can mortgage them to higher bidders.

You don't have to mortgage 100% of your property. Since it is really up to you, you can even split a single property to 4 different mortgages and borrow money from different sources. However, you would need some very good reasons why people still want to lend you the money. But if it is a 4 sections building, it wouldn't look that ridiculous anymore, would it ?

Item that can be mortgaged does not even need to be mortar. An idea or a method can be mortgaged too. As long as someone believe in your value judgement and their interests taken care of, they can lend you money. So you can literary mortgage your property for money without giving it out as a collateral at all. Especially applicable when you are earning revenue from such properties.

Loan or Mortgage ?
Borrower or Mortgagor ?
Lender or Mortgagee ?

As mentioned earlier, this is just a matter of how the story is told. Do you want others to control your story or do you want to tell your owns ?








Sunday, January 17, 2010

HLA Guarantee 12.5% saving plan

Hong Leong Assurance offers a plan that guarantees 12.5% return. Basically you only need to save $3,932 for 6 years and you are guaranteed to receive $500 every year starting from the 1st year for 35 years.

So 500 out of 3,932 is more than 12.5%

$500 x 35 years would give a guarantee amount of $17,500. If you do not withdraw this money, it will accumulate more interest. On the 35th year, you will get $50,126 instead of just the $17,500.

In addition, there is a dividend payout where the minimum is expected to be $200. Not guarantee but pretty guaranteed as in insurance layman terms. With the most conservative assumptions etc. you will get more than $105,000+ at the end of 35 years.

Most of the older readers should know this trick by now. There is no such thing as insurance saving that gives guarantee and higher than Fix Deposit return in normal circumstances.

If you save the same $3,932 in a bank account that gives you 1.72%, it will give you a total $41,082 on the 35th year; equivalent to the guarantee yearly $500 plus capital preservation. So the guaranteed return you are really getting is less than 1.72%. Because your capital is NOT guaranteed in this plan.

If you keep the $500 and go for the guarantee $50,126 return at the end, that is equivalent to 2.35% return. Currently bank is offering 2.5% FD rate for annual renewal.

Lastly if you are really getting back $105,862 at the end, that is equivalent to 4.72% annual return.

Consumers need to know what the effective rate is when comparing plans. For crying out loud, insurance field agents please upgrade yourself and calculate what the real effective rate is. May be you don't need to tell everyone about it but when some personal finance savvy consumers asked about it, it is more reputable if you can give some valid figures.

4.72% is NOT a bad return at all. But 35 years is too long.

The Driver of Social Change (2 of 2)

This past year I spent a grim November in Zurich. Grim were the politics; Zurich is a beautiful city and I have dear friends there.

The talk of the town was the national referendum to ban the construction of minarets in Switzerland. The anti-minaret poster which itself became the subject of controversy was everywhere. It showed a woman in burka next to a cluster of minarets that looked like missiles, all juxtaposed over a Swiss flag. The message was that backwards Islam will destroy Switzerland.

On November 29, the measure passed with 57% of votes.

In the past couple of years, we have seen the variations of this theme played across Europe, most recently in France, where wearing burka was banned in school. The President of the Republic himself took a very public stand against this “symbol of oppression”.

But I couldn't help noticing the changing narrative in Switzerland. Whilst previously the talk had been around the Muslim hordes invading the idyllic European landscape, the anti-minaret campaign focused on the “power” of Islam; hence the modern “missiles”. The general secretary of the Swiss People’s Party which had sponsored the anti-minaret measure said that its passage was “a vote against minarets as symbols of Islamic power”.

The claim seems absurd. Any passer-by could readily see that Muslims have no political influence or say in Switzerland – or anywhere in Western Europe. A Tissin butcher’s social and political influence will trump theirs any time. To which Muslim power then was the general secretary of SVP referring?

***

The same November, another dispute reached its climax. This one could not have been more removed from the minaret controversy in terms of public awareness, sentiment and reaction. Few people in Switzerland and Europe heard about it. Even if they had, a question about the issue would have drawn a blank stare, because it involved the regulation of derivatives.

The U.S., with the support of the U.K., wanted to move the trading of the over-the-counter derivatives to the exchanges. The claim was that such a move would reduce the counterparty risk and add to the transparency.

The Europeans, headed by France and Germany, opposed the move. They claimed that exchange trading would add to the costs by subjecting the trades to margin calls. The Financial Times reported the split:
Europe’s largest companies have accused the US of being “adamantly unwilling” to relax proposed reforms of the over-the-counter derivatives markets ... The comments made by the European Association of Corporate Treasurers (EACT), raise the possibility that Europe and US may go their own ways in implementing reforms of the OTC derivatives market ... The administration of Barack Obama in the US and the European Commission argue this is needed to reduce so-called counterparty risk in the financial system since clearing houses ensure that transactions are completed even if one party to a trade defaults.

Companies counter that they would be unfairly penalised if such reforms became law because the laws would oblige them to set aside extra cash – margin – to guarantee those trades ... Richard Raeburn, chairman of the EACT, whose members include Volkswagen, Siemens and Rolls Royce, said his body would not hesitate to “look to the European Commission and Parliament to be prepared to take a more considered and pragmatic approach” than that of the US. Mr Raeburn said that if this resulted in “divergence from the US, so be it”.
First, take note of the parties to the dispute. On one side is the “Obama administration”, i.e., the U.S. government; on the other, Volkswagen, Siemens and Rolls Royce, backed by EACT and then, the European Commission and European Parliament. But lest you think this is a U.S. vs Europe issue – no issue ever is strictly Europe vs. U.S. – here is a subsequent paragraph from the same article:
In the US, the issue of company exemptions from OTC derivatives reform is likely to be raised today at a hearing of the Senate’s agriculture committee.

The Coalition for Derivatives End-Users, a recently formed lobby group representing 180 US companies including Apple, Intel, Caterpillar and 3M recently wrote to House speaker Nancy Pelosi urging lawmakers to “preserve the ability of companies to manage their individual risk exposures by ensuring access to reasonably priced and customised over-the-counter derivatives”.
So, in addition to Volkswagen, Siemens and Rolls Royce in Europe, Apple, Intel, Caterpillar and 3M in the U.S. are also against the “reform”; they are against the derivatives being traded in the exchanges.

These are all industrial companies. If you read their letter to members of Congress, you will not find Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup or Bank of America among the petitioners. This latter group is represented by the “Obama administration”. What we have here is a quarrel between the industrial and finance capital, each side jockeying to place itself in the most advantageous position within the system. And no one is budging; inconsistent accounting treatment of the derivatives in the U.S. and Europe? “So be it”.

In the U.S., finance capital reigns. The industrial capital can only appeal to Congress. Finance capital owns it. So the “financial reform” legislation will force trading of OTC derivatives in whole or in part into the exchanges.

In Europe, the European Commission is also under the spell of finance capital. The industrial companies know that; hence their threat to take the matter to European Parliament, which they control and has the power to strip the European Commissioners of their authority.

Where could the European industrial companies go if there was no EU? The answer is, nowhere; without the EU mechanism they would have had no place to go to protect their interests.

By following the obscure and technical matter of the regulation of the derivatives, we thus arrive at the reason for the creation of the European Union, its raison d’etre.

EU is created for the explicit purpose of advancing the interests of the “European” capital, as a counterweight to the “Anglo-Saxon” capital in the U.S. and U.K. “Existence of a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union” is the main criterion of membership.

Within the Union, the industrial and finance capital occupy relatively equal positions of power. They have a peaceful coexistence of sorts but tension surfaces every now and then when the interests of one side are too clearly threatened. (Hence the ambivalence of finance capital-dominated U.K. to the Union, despite the geographic proximity and cultural links.)

The remoteness of the derivatives dispute is symptomatic of the “macro”, almost abstract, level in which the various treaties, directives, rules, laws and regulations of the Union are implemented. These measures affect every area of life in the Union, including agriculture, competition, economic and monetary affairs, education, environment, external trade, public health, institutional affairs, research and taxation. Yet, the population remains woefully ignorant about them. What is more, they have had no say or choice in their implementation. The Constitution of the Union which codified these far reaching changes – it is referred to as the “Lisbon Treaty” to make it sound dull and uninteresting – was imposed from the top.

In countries where it could be adopted through the political machinery, the governments quietly obliged. In countries where a direct vote by the population was required, a “Yes” vote was called for. When the vote turned out to be “No”, it was promptly ignored. “We cannot say that the treaty is dead” said the European Commission President after the French “No” vote, although, in theory, the treaty had to be dead because a unanimous approval was a condition for its passage.

The same thing happened in Holland and, later, in Ireland, when the “No” vote was dismissed as the mindless act of uncouth peasants who did not know what was good for them. Capital will simply not take a “No” for an answer when the course of its future development is at stake.
When the French and the Dutch voted against the constitutional treaty in May and June 2005, the document reappeared as a “mini-treaty”, longer than the original, and was ratified by governments without recourse to a referendum. Many countries have reneged on promises they made to their electorates about a referendum.
The Irish had to vote again until they got it right. As Margaret Thatcher put it, “there is no alternative”.

The European citizenry cannot articulate these developments, but they perceive the contempt that they signify. They look for an alternative, a total Other, and some of them find Islam.

Switzerland is not a part of the EU, but fits this description to a tee. So in the most unlikely places in Zurich, you see businessmen in the tight fitting dark European suite with a kaffieh wrapped around his neck and suddenly you understand the reference to the power of Islam and concerns about it. The concerns are neither due to minarets nor the Turkish emigrants manning fast food stands, but the Swiss, repelled by the system that despite protestations to the contrary, have begun to suspect, no longer reflects their concerns.

I will return with the epilogue.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Charge your future usage : how did it happen ?

The way credit card companies forward calculate interest has sicken many users. Together with the 5 cents round up mechanism, there are cases where its not even the users fault not to totally pay off their last month balance.

Some are still in shock how consumers can be abused in such a way. Well, this is how ...

Credit card companies used to charge 18% interest on the amount you underpay and owe to them. Seeing that this high interest has caused many people in debt and even bankruptcy, banks are urged to reduce that rate. So the project of multi-tier interest rate was born.

If the amount you owe is not that much, banks may reduce that rate to 13.5% for example. Like wise, if you continue not to pay, banks will have the rights to charge 18% interest again. So lower interest rate is imposed on lower loan amount.

So far so good isn't it ?

Well, banks are going to give you more. In addition ...
We will give you 22 days interest free on all transactions, if last month outstanding balance, as per monthly statement, are settled within due date. In cases where this interest free is not applicable, we will charge interest on all transactions from the posting date.
Don't doubt my grammar, its a carefully formulated sentences very similar to the actual terms and clauses. All the commas and periods are there for a good reason.

It is still fair isn't it ? What it says is if I paid last month balance in full, I will not be charged interest for another 22 days. Else of course I should pay interest.

There are 2 sentences up there.

The first one evolves around monthly statement. If the bank generates your statement on the 1st of the month, you don't need to pay interest of the amount on that statement up to 22th. Which is also usually the payment due date. Ok still ...

The 'all' in blue color means all the transactions on that monthly statement. Not 'all' the other transactions you used before and after the statement. Guess what, the transactions you used before is a brought forward balance, so its NOT a transaction and therefore will continue be charged interest and excluded from this interest free offer. You are also NOT getting interest free for all future transactions because they are NOT on that statement yet.

The second part starts with "if interest free is not applicable". It doesn't say if you don't pay then we charge you. There are many other reasons interest free is not applicable and no matter what they are, you will be charged. So there is ONE specific scenario you may get interest free period and ALL THE OTHER scenarios would allow us to charge you. Thats basically what it sums up to.

Now there is also a word 'all' in the 2nd part. This time, there is no statement mentioned. This 'all' would mean ALL transactions including the future ones you are going to make. And the interest is calculated based on the posting date which is totally ok even if it is a future date.

I am not quite sure if I have presented this clearly. There is the trick of saying something seems genuine and simple but yet a small word in it turn the whole thing around. A seems-to-be very thoughtful offer has been given, most of us were ok with it and now its too late to turn the game plan.

Banks came to us on day light, offered us lower interest tiers and a new way to calculate interest ( with interest free period !! ) and we bought it. So now its too late for us to pursue normal channels to change this. Whatever left is to propagate this knowledge to more and avoid to be taken advantage off.

If still want to do more, please get more people to read this series of articles ...

How did it happen ? ( this article )





Wednesday, January 13, 2010

5 cents Round Up mechanism

Most of the Malaysians are already used to the 5 cents round up despite how silly some of the transactions could become.

BNM has already clearly stated that this only apply to cash transactions where we are trying to get rid of 1 cent coins. But it is obvious that even if you are paying with credit card, check and online transfer, most of the retailers will still round the 5 cents up.

When you go to bank and make a payment of $9.98 over the counter. You may write down $9.98 in the bank in slip. Upon making payment, the cashier will have to get $10.00 from you. Which is fine since now the rule is to round it up. When the transaction is done and you get back your proof of payment, what do you think your paper work will say you paid ? Correct, $9.98 !

So be smart, round it up and write down $10.00 because that is the actual amount you pay.

What if the amount is $9.96, you would definitely have to pay $9.95 but should you write on the slip $9.95 or $9.96 ?

If you did write down $9.95 as in honestly you have just paid that exact amount and not 1 cent extra, you may face the risk of another funny finance scenario ... credit card forward interest calculation where your 1 cent ignorance could have cost you $15 !! Well, not that funny but its happening everyday ...

Guess what, with this GST coming soon ... we consumers may not see it how it comes at all, we may NOT even realize after many years ... but all these little things combined together are THE ONES that kill your personal finance, especially if you don't know.

Government and the big boys can do all kind of tricks to keep the national inflation number down but what really matter is your own REAL personal inflation rate!