Thursday, November 12, 2009

Govt. goes public - Don't subsidize the RM50 !

It was hinted before that government may try to stop banks to subsidize credit card users on the RM50 fee to be enforced by the government starting next year.

Today its no longer an internal warnings between government and banks. Government has made it public in the news on this. But of course it was made in a polite way,

if banks subsidize our RM 50
we will FAIL to reduce
Credit Card Debt problem !

Actually following one of the latest sharing commented by Alan in last post, banks faced many rejections on the ideas they proposed to bank negara. But BNM has no control whatsoever on the points accumulated in your credit cards. So when banks use the point system to return the RM 50 value to the credit card users, government fail to stop that approach. Hence, government goes public with news to add public social pressure to the banks.

Its interesting to see how politic and finance fight so fierce over our precious RM 50.

I am predicting the next move from bank is introducing 1Card - use ONE bank's credit card as to replace ALL other banks' card. Such Credit Card will have combined limit of all your other cards. The trouble they are facing now is to combine all the rebates offers because each bank only have contracts with certain retailers.

Imagine a Card that you can swipe up to $200,000 !! You can buy a house instantly with a plastic !!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

How much should we buy that car ?


Most personal car purchases are sentimental and relate to quality of life ... however if purchasing a car is mainly a transport and finance matters then it could be iron out this way ...

First lets start with some facts of transport life around me;
  • Taxi is as good as my own car if not better ( its my own car + a driver ) but its costly
  • Bus stations are near by and can go almost anywhere but it takes too much of my precious time
  • Intra city trains are fast and efficient but only after you are IN the city
  • Car rental gives the highest flexibility but it could be expensive if park aside too long
So I will need a hybrid solution if I don't have my own car. For me, I will use Taxi - Train - Light Rail during normal days and Bus and Car Rental during weekend and holidays.

First I take a taxi to the near by train station (KTM), once in town I use light rails ( PUTRA, STAR, MONORAIL etc.) to travel almost anywhere within the city. Typically I would need to exchange once within the light rail systems to reach my destination. Return trip same path.
$8 : Taxi to station
$1.40 : Train to Town
$1.80 x 2 : Light rails within city

One way = $13
Return or one day = $26
5 days week = $130
50 weeks a year = $6,500
By weekend, I would rent a car and run away for 2 days ...
$180 / day x 2 days = $360
4 weeks or 1 month = $1,440
12 months or 1 year = $17,280
Adding both up is $23,780 a year.

If $2,000 a month of transportation fee seems ridiculously high, you probably do not need to rent a car every weekend, perhaps every bi-weekly or even every month if at all needed. Run your own numbers for your own scenarios. This example is trying to mimic the same lifestyle with a car.

Now if I do all that with my own car, I would need to pay for
  • petrol : $400 a month
  • parking : $10 / day x 5 days x 4 weeks = $200 a month
  • maintainence : $100 a month
That is a total of $700 a month burn. That leaves $1,300 a month for the car itself. So if I can find a car that I have to pay monthly less than $1,300, it may just be a good deal.

So if I take 3 years car loan at 3% interest I probably should buy a car less than $43,000
if I take 5 years car loan instead, I could spend up to $67,826 for a car.

Consider the resell value as a bonus or final fund consolidation just in case maintainence shoots up or you ended up not using that car that much after all.


Thursday, November 5, 2009

Bus Fares = OK but ...


Bus fare usage in Kuala Lumpur is averaged at RM 1.70 per ride base on the following usage rates.
50% Zone 1 RM 1.10
30% Zone 2 RM 1.90
10% Zone 3 RM 2.50
10% Zone 4 RM 3.10
Typically one may need to take 2 bus routes to reach destination. So one trip is RM 3.40 or Return trips are RM 6.80

1 week or 5 working days would mean a cost of RM 34 or RM 136 a month or RM 1,632 a year.

Travel within Kuala Lumpur using private transport is average at half an hour. Relatively using buses for the same destinations would increase the travel time to 1.5 hours; include waiting and walking time.

There you go, if you use buses as your main transport, you may need more than RM 1,500 a year and 720 hours commute time. You may save some money yearly but in the cost of 480 hours.

Do you bus ?

New Bus Fares in West Malaysia effective 1 August 2009

KL Buses :
Zone1 RM 1 to RM 1.10
Zone2 RM 1.70 to RM 1.90
Zone3 RM 2.20 to RM 2.50
Zone4 RM 2.70 to RM 3.10

Other Buses :
(No Air Con) RM 0.62 first 2 km, RM 0.094 every km thereafter
(Air Con) RM 0.94 first 2 km, RM 0.094 every km thereafter

Mini Buses :
(No Air Con) RM 0.90 one way
(Air Con) RM 1 one way

School Buses:
(Town) Monthly RM 27.43 first km, RM 2.02 every km thereafter.
(Rural) Monthly RM 20.61 first km, RM 2.02 every km thereafter.

Express Buses : RM 0.085 / km

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

On “Industrial Policy”

What type of stories would I cover if I were a financial journalist?

A couple of weeks ago, The New York Times had an interview with William Clay Ford Jr., “perhaps the most seasoned auto executive in Detroit.” He has more than 30 years on the job at Ford Motor Company which was founded by his great grandfather. He is presently the executive chairman of the board. A Q&A and the follow-up went as follows:
Q: Is the financial support given by taxpayers to G.M. and Chrysler a positive development for the American economy?

A: The biggest concern that we had all through this was the collapse of the supply base. I believe that if G.M. and Chrysler had gone into free-fall bankruptcies, it could have devastated the entire industrial base of this country.

Q: Does the average American value the domestic auto industry?

A: They should. One cannot find a healthy economy anywhere in the world that does not have a strong industrial base, period. We seem to be the only country in the world that doesn't strongly value that. Everywhere else Ford does business in the world the government and people understand it, and do everything they can to enhance it. The notion that we can just simply become an information-age data provider as a nation is ludicrous.
The interview was published in a special section about cars and not in the business section.

If I were conducting the interview, I would note that Ford Jr. was lamenting the lack of an industrial policy, although he did not dare/care/want to mention that phrase. I would also note that he was lamenting the lack of an industrial policy the way one would lament the lack of, say, good beaches in the country.

I would gently push him on the subject, encouraging him to continue with his thoughts.

“Mr. Ford”, I would ask, “as a high ranking executive of Ford Motor Company and a powerful business executive, your views carry tremendous weight on the subject of manufacturing. You have the ear of every Fortune 500 executive and every policymaker in this country, including the president of the U.S. Since you maintain that without an industrial policy a nation is doomed, “period”, why is it that you have not pushed for the creation and adoption of just such a policy? More importantly, given the critical role of such policy, one would expect it to be the playbook of the business and the government activities. But it is not. Who and what stand in the way? Please take your time.”

I would then go to Larry Summers, the wunderkind working from the While House, and ask him the flip side of the question.

“Dr. Summers”, I’d ask. “The Wall Street Journal of February 13, 1998 carried an incredible news story on page A2 pertaining to your testimony in front of a congressional committee in the context of the Asian financial crisis that was then raging. Here is what you said:
There has been more progress in scaling back the industrial policy programs in these countries in the last several months than there has been in a decade or more of negotiations.
“In your testimony, you expressed satisfaction at the scaling back, or even the destruction of, the industrial policies in Asian countries. Is it now or has it ever been the policy of the U.S. to dismantle the industrial policies anywhere it finds them, including within the U.S.? If so, how and where is this policy set? If there is no coordinated opposition, why do you think that there has not been any such policy despite the conviction of manufacturing executives that it is absolutely needed?”

These are the questions I would ask if I were a financial journalist.

Malaysia Unit Trusts 5 years Return

Below table shows the return of Unit Trusts in Malaysia from 2001 to 2006. I added two columns to the right.

Average return per year is simply return divided by number of years, in this case, n / 5 years ie. 25.9 / 5 = 5.18

Equivalent Compound Return Rate is using the FV formula to calculate what the interest rate would be if you save $100 5 years ago to get the same return. This is the number you should use to compare with Fix Deposit interest rate.



Pit falls ? Not so much on that but some key concepts when reading numbers like this ...

These numbers don't mean much by themselves. You should compare them with other numbers to make more senses and decide course of action. For example;
  • Compare with Stock Market indexes. Mutual funds are suppose to outperform certain benchmarks. So a fund is only really doing well when it is BETTER than ....
  • Compare with Fix Deposit interest. Are these rates significantly higher than FD through the same period ?
  • Compare with Inflation rates. Similar to FD comparison but from a different angle.
  • Compare with itself. How are the performances 2002-2007, 2003-2008 etc ? 2007 to 2008 are losing years. If one uses 2001-2006 as the 'BEST' years, then numbers of 2007 to 2008 should also be analysed as the 'WORST' years - as in comparing reward and risk ratio.
Lastly, match past record to today's situation. Index Tracking funds did the best during economy recovering years from 2001-2006. Is today's economy like 2001 ? If yes we should buy ! Or is today more like 2006 where economy is booming but due to doom ? If yes we should probably cash out. Or is today in between ?

Don't know what this is all about ? Apply Dollar Cost Averaging.

Remember that if you apply DCA, above mentioned returns do not apply to you neither.

EPF Interest Calculation - Pro Rated

EPF's interest calculation is one of the weird ones. Somehow they don't use the straight forward FV formula. Although it may seems like they are stupid and don't know math but the actual reasons are;

1) They don't really know how much to pay you until after financial closing at year end
2) your employer may submit your contribution to EPF LATE
3) legacy system left over from British colony time

In short, EPF interest calculation is pro rated. So

1) Whatever you have left last year will enjoy full interest payment this year.
ie. $100,000 x 4% = $4,000

2) Amount you save on 1st month will enjoy 11 month interest, 2nd month will enjoy 10 months interest etc.
ie. in January $100 x 4% x 11 / 12
ie. in February $100 x 4% x 10 / 12

The exact words from KWSP

»How is the EPF dividend calculated?
In order to determine the dividend rate, factors that need to be taken into consideration include net income and total for 1% dividend at year-end.

For example:

Dividend Rate = Net income (a) x 1% Total for a 1% dividend (b)

  • Investment income + Non-investment income - Expenses
  • Total for a 1% dividend is based on:
    • Opening balance of contribution (after withdrawal) that obtain dividend for a 12-month period, and
    • Monthly contribution that obtain pro rated dividend i.e. dividend for the n-month will get (12-n) month dividend. For example, the September contribution (n=9) will obtain a 3 months dividend.
Under Section 27 of the EPF Act 1991, the guaranteed minimum dividend rate is 2.5% per
year on members' savings.

Example Calculation based on this article : MYR300 FREE Money


This document can be found here

There are many EPF calculation tools online. Unfortunately, none of them will show the same figures. So above calculation is actually different than what some of the banks web site will tell you. Even the EPF web site itself will show different figures than the banks and this article. However, this calculation method posted here, has been shown to KWSP HQ 2 years ago and the officers confirm correctness.

So treat this as one of the ways to calculate EPF interest, not the absolute correct and only way. I have seen 2 person EPF return calculated differently. After reporting to KWSP, they simply pick the lower payout methods without much justification. Since then, we do not report inconsistency in their calculation anymore unless it is LESS than what we should get.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Its NOT just a finance game ... unfortunately


A short while ago, I wrote that charging MYR50 to credit card users is an ineffective way to reduce credit card debt. I even predicted that government would soon realize this mistake and relax in execution later on. Quite a few large finance institutions thinks the same too. But of course they have their own agenda.

But I was wrong. Life is never monotonous. Personal Finance is NOT just about personal and finance. If you live on a land that has a country name, there are politics. And Politics matter, especially in this case.

This is my Right !
I can DO THIS and
I AM DOING IT !!

Perhaps we push too fast, too strong and making our finance ministry looks like a fool. Hence, our TOP decision maker has now publicly declared that HE is going to charge the MYR 50 NO MATTER WHAT !

Rumors or insider news, bankers are warn NOT to absorb the MYR 50 or else they will face indirect penalty withdrawing other facilities have been given to them. HE is very determined to collect this MYR 556 millions !!

You have a Problem ?
You Come Talk to me !


Ok, ok I will pay you MYR 50 ....