Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Malaysia Stock Market 20121107

Buying opportunities again ... are you dare to go for some year end bonus this year ?

TM : no major news, could have bought in today.  Should be a good keeper.


AIRASIA : EPF leaving, International investors support, internal Directors buy back.  If you like Airasia business model etc.  Opportunity to buy now.  No foreseeable big profit gain by year end thao.


AXIATA : No Major News, EPF & Amanah Raya holding up.


DIGI : face problems in service area, technical issues, licenses etc.  EPF disposing.  Watch closely for Management strategy turn over.  Now this company is 'finally' going south, not just stock wise, mainly business wise.


PBBANK : NO Major news, EPF continuously holding up.  But technically just started a down trend.  Don't chase down trend, wait a bit on this one.


What is your opinions ?  All comments welcome ...

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Reversal Trend Stocks

In stock investment, you should learn how to see the mega trend.  When it is generally a bull trend, you simply buy some blue chips and it shall earn you some good money.  When bear comes, you took your profit.  As long as you don't stay too close to the market, this can rather easily be achieved.  Just walk around a wet market and ask 10 stalls how the market is.  You will be surprised how closely their non-professional opinions are related to the real market performance.

Then you must realize NOT ALL stocks are the same.  Even during an obvious bull run, there are some stocks going down.  Like wise during bear runs.  Some stocks will still go up.  Finding out these 'Reversal Stocks' is important for a full time traders.

The reason goes like this:  there is a fix amount of money floating in the market.  The mega fund managers simply CAN NOT withdraw TOTALLY from the market even if it is GUARANTEED a bear market.  They are required by law to keep investing ie. 70% of their fund.  So during bear market, they will focus on a few stocks to minimize loses.  As a result, during bear market, a few stocks will always be on a up trend.  And not surprisingly, those are the stocks didn't join the previous bull run.

As long as you have done your fundamental analysis, knowing mega trend stocks and reversal stocks allows you to invest both during good and bad time.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Malaysia Lowest Stock Brokerage Fee

MPlus Online and ECMmoney offers the lowest brokerage fee @ 0.08% for cash upfront account.  MPlus offers even lower rate @ 0.05% if you have more than 30k balance.

Follows by Hong Leong, Jupiter Online, OSK 88  who offers 0.1%


I have been using Jupiter but I am paying 0.45%.  I forgot why I pay so much, perhaps its because I am an Elite member who obtain extra trading info !?  My effective fee cost is actually 0.6% and below.

I tried to switch to CIMB but not successful due to their systems are not easy to use.  I stay with Jupiter mainly because I can trade from my android phone.

Have you used any of above brokers ?  Are they good ?

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

KLSE 2012 07 26

Try give these stocks an eye ...

MRCB : worth buying below 1.80, potential peak 1.90, can observe for another 3 trading days before making decision.

UEMLAND : worth buying below 2.00, potential peak 2.08, observe another 5 trading days before decide.

YTL :  -- do your own research --

MAS :  -- do your own research --

DIALOG, MAXIS : some recommended this but not me.


Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Who make money from stock market ?

why some idiot can earn money from stock market but some smartest analysts don't ?

Saturday, August 27, 2011

End of Warren Buffet ?

Have you ever had the experience that before you invest in something, you always get the market right ?  Then once you get into in, things start going the other way and you wonder Argh !!! Its just so typical ?  Well, you are not alone.  Almost everyone has that, even the most experience investor.  But would Warren Buffet fall for such prey too ?

There is such thing called 10 years cycle in global stock market where the worst and best performance take turns every 10 years, there about.  Previous recessions happened in 1990, 1998, 2008.  So theoretically for the next few years, we are heading toward the next height better than ever before.

Warren Buffet shared the same thought and he has been heavily invested into the market since 2009.  By early 2011 he is almost fully into the market.  But everyone can see now that the market is NOT shooting up yet.  On the contrary, most are expecting double dips now especially for the western worlds.

It appears that even Warren Buffet starts to get worry and he now appears more on media stating his opinion that there is nothing to worry about.

We (USA) have a great system (finance), 
we always get back on our feet
it doesn't mean we wouldn't get tested
but we will be fine.

This is called public confidence instilment.  Since he doesn't have others things to do; ie. most of his capital are already in the market, he, the ultimate investment idol of the world, now has the time to come out asking all of us to join him to go into the market.  Unfortunately, this time ... even the market is bigger than Warren Buffet, may be ?

There is no apparent hints which way market will go but then again, things should become much clearer before year end so its not too long from now.  Warren Buffet will either meet his end or he will become so much richer than he already is.

So right now, Warren Buffet is hopeful on the market because he is already in the market and he needed it to be ok.  So don't beat yourself too hard when the market didn't go your way after you go in.  Its just part of our nature way of expecting the world to go our ways, always.

kass had the same worry too

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

There is NO such thing as Passive Income !?



21st century personal finance is moving away from saving and focus into the income arena. In short, the gurus are now educating public that saving is NOT good enough, hence sourcing for passive incomes on the another hand is a BETTER solution, than just saving alone.


While the concept is definitely true and correct but unfortunately as the hypes go bigger and bigger, the idea of passive income has been abused and more scams started to appear in the market, as if they were the gurus as well. Except the 'passive income' they refer to is barely promoting their own original same old products. The personal finance market has become so competitive that even some real gurus have no choice but to go beyond the line in their marketing effort - Robert Kiyosaki is no exception in spreading "Saving is bad".


Although passive income is very well defined here using income ratio 1:100 but is there really such thing as Passive income ? When I looked up dictionary, these words come up


PASSIVE : not participating, inactive, not reacting, inert or quiescent.


None of these words correctly describe a well implemented passive income. I use my best judgement to find a good location, a value property and a pay master tenant. I setup a profit take target and an exit strategy in my investments before I leave and let them auto pilot. All of these are very participating, actively applying my knowledge and experience, reacting appropriately when necessary etc.


The word "Passive" also gives people a psychology of No Need To Do Anything; As if an easy to get rich scheme with a better cover.


Hence this article wants to pursue all readers to stay away from the term Passive Income. Its negative, misleading and now abusive by the over-stress marketing effect. Instead, think of Smart Income !


There is no hard and fast rules for Smart Income. Any income can be earned the regular way or the Smart way !




An employee can use minimum of his time effectively to earn the highest salary or benefits. A self employ can easily leverage on Internet to earn income repeatedly. A business owner can employ a system to run his business. An investor can setup an autopilot mechanism.


So no matter which income quadrant you are in, it is possible for you to turn that income into a smart one. Its a matter of HOW you earn your income, NOT WHAT you do.


Are you pursuing smart income ?

Sunday, September 12, 2010

21st century Economy Politic Quadrant


The Economy-Political Quadrant may seems like telling where to keep or invest your money despite good or bad time.


It indeed works very well during 20th century. Unfortunately comes to 21st century, not only has the year changed, personal finance arena has changed drastically as well.

Gold has been speculated so much that it MAY no longer be the standard of money.

There used to be only 'property' in the city. Now there are satellite towns, suburbs ... agriculture lands and even dust bins ( recycle ) have become valuable estates too. While property remains the right category to invest into whenever economy is booming, but predict the right future seems like tougher than buying lottery.

Government bonds used to be de-Facto action when a country is stable. But in today's world, a country is as smart as a taicon's finance. One day they are the LARGEST, the next day they are GONE.

Stock market used to be the back bone of a country's economy. However, the market of derivatives has become so HUGE that the REAL and PHYSICAL is NO LONGER more real than VIRTUAL

So in 21st century, the element of Stock-Property-Funds-Gold is really questionable. However, one fundamental that doesn't change is that

you will have to identify what to do at what time that is BEST for YOU !

Hope you will find your own very best Economy-Political Quadrant soon !


Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Economy Politic Finance Quadrant

There are 2 BIG main external factors affecting our investment decisions
  • Economy
  • Politic
When the time is really bad (economy downturn and politically unstable), its best to park your money under something that is really stable, ie Gold. Which is by definition usable anywhere you go in anytime.

When its good time, invest direct to the stock market would yield very good return.

When the economy is not so good in a strong country, the government bonds or related money market would be able to yield higher return than just gold.

However, the most dispute solution in good economy unstable country is investment in property. This is mainly due to easier rental and higher chance of capital gain.

By simply moving money around depends on the political and economy situation, one was able to achieve more than 12% compound return for the past 20 years. That is equivalent to a 10X return.

But by no mean this is easily done. Some of the concerns include;
  • how would one know exactly when economy/politic turns good/bad ?
  • is Gold the ONLY option ?
  • property may not easily liquidated
  • how to choose which property or stock market ?
. . . which can be explored further.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Do NOT Leverage EVERYTHING



There are certain fundamental stuffs that you should do even before you fully understand what they are. That will at least keep you afloat at a certain stage, also often used as resting stage or jumping stone to higher level. Usually this stage is also adequate for young adult to retire early. What goes beyond however will require clear target and solid methods. Some of the easier methods shared before are ;

One common element to do great thing is the use of Leverage. Unfortunately, a lot of people learn about leveraging before they learn the right method. As a result they simply leverage everything they had.

Leverage is basically maximizing result, no matter what direction it goes. If you have a good investment system, leveraging it would result a bigger profit. Likewise, if you have a bad or no system at all, leveraging on it would only give unknown result if not just worse.

Leverage amplifies both the rewards and the risks. Hence if the risk was not properly mitigated before hand, then the result is always disastrous.


Make sure you have found a good method that you like and have proven working well for you, ie. your cup of tea. Then only apply Leveraging technique on that particular system. Else just DON'T Leverage at all !


One of the most common wrongly leverage stories come from property investment.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Comments on Jupiter 2010 stock picks

Faber Group was one of the worst run businesses of all time. They wanted to do 'everything' and ended up achieved almost 'nothing'. Its one of those stories who involved in property development and didn't quite make it. The whole restructuring exercise took more than 5 years before they finally turned it around. What is interesting however is its consistent up trend in their EPS earning, despite that it started from a negative (84.2) in 1998. Looking forward, if the person who is managing finance in Faber continues to stay in power, this is worth looking into more. It could become one of the best long term keeper. Key to success is if they can repeat 2005-2006 growth now. This can be determined by reading their latest annual report. Challenges are varies of their continuous law suits.

SAPCRES, Oil and Gas, looks pretty good now. It seems like anything under RM 2.49 is a good buy ( and keep for the next 10 years). The problem is technically it is at its all time high now and corrections are bound to occur. Another problem is it has been relying too much on the oil market and fluctuated too much in the past. Internally they should really improve their hedging strategies to smoothen out their track records.

Paramount is properly most well known when they bought Kota Kemuning with cash 7 years ago. Perhaps they should buy another big piece of land now to stimulate next 3 years of growth !? Basically this is also a very good keeper, it wouldn't go too low anyhow so it has a strong safety net but technical correction pressure is quite high at the moment. Its employee share option scheme also make it a less attractive stocks. Potentially a keeper but lack of stimulants now.

While some think Zhulian is a great MLM company, I personally think they should adopt newer concepts etc. They are still employing 20th century MLM aka. repeat Amway's story but landed on a wrong product to start with. But even with the wrong product, they are in the right market and hence still manage to make it a success in their own scales. My target buy price for Zhulian is only RM 0.66


The rest of the Kurnia, KurAsia, Atrium, TSM and WellCall do not meet volume requirment. So whatever reasons Jupiter recommends them are not based on proven strength analysis - which in turn I consider as speculations. Among all, TSM may be the one what is most speculatable.

My actions ?

I have chosen KNM over SAPCRES in the past before. There is no urgency to change yet although its tempting. Faber and Paramount on the other hands were NOT in my radar before. Can Paramount regains its debut ? Is Faber really undervalued and have their internal issues really addressed ? I may check out Faber's management team first ...

Friday, January 22, 2010

Jupiter Online Stock Pick for 2010

Just came back from Jupuiter Online seminar, some of their stock picks for the year of 2010 are:

Zhulian
Faber
WellCall Holdings
Sapura Crest
Atrium REIT
TSM Global
Paramount Corp
Kurnia


Talk given by: Pong Teng Siew.

Actually he mentioned these are short to medium terms recommendation only ie. next month to next quarter or so. Overall there are many uncertainties ahead that the bullish trend is really questionable. Hence generally there will be a correction in the market soon, followed by a mainly side trends for the next 2 years.

A few points that I manage to digest are:

Governments backup funds are ending in mid or end of the year, banks are not likely to recover fully and able to stand on their own yet.

USA employment rate is actually higher than reported figures because the number of people claiming un-employment insurance are still rocket high. A lot of part time workers are actually un-willingly working part time but forced to.

China rising inflation may result them pulling back their outflow funds, implying we can't really rely on China neither.

I don't fully agree with all his views but nevertheless shared the similar future trend predictions. I may comment on his stock picks after I eat something ... hungry like a horse now ...

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

KLSE Technical 2010-01-21


I have stopped stock market talks for a while based on comments received in the past. But about 20% of the old readers unsubscribed following that. So I am guessing there may still be some silence readers who love stock market talks. And I feel very itchy not to share my view seeing that no one else publishes my opinions. So pardon my incidental randoms.

As some may have known by now that KLSE is damn HOT now! Axiata, PBBank, KYM, RCECAP, LIONDIV, LIONIND, MBSB, AFG etc. all shoot up 8-12% in a day. This has happened since 2 days ago KLSE finally broke its 1300 ceiling after 10 months of 'recovery'.

Things are indeed great. But you may want to know a few things;

Despite higher closing price, MORE number of stocks are dropping THAN rising, 2 days in a roll. This may imply that only a few stocks are being speculated. Investors may even withdraw from other stocks in order to join the hot stocks growth. This also shows that there is NOT ENOUGH investment money flowing within the market now. So whatever the reasons are for the up swing, its NOT going to be able to keep it for long.


There has been a "closing up swing pattern" for the last few months. This shows that certain parties are manipulating the open and closing price so that certain trends are shown in technical analysis (so that other fund managers will join in the game). This is not totally a bad thing but if you are not following what these big boys are doing, its very likely that you don't catch their next moves.

According to Bollinger Band (20d, 2), KLCI is hitting its top band soon ie. 1315 by 25 Jan. So correction is coming very soon. Tomorrow is going to be a red day, if it goes on the day after, then the correction will be confirmed and it will be a good news where you can start accumulating again.

All the other indicators also show that there may only be another 10-20% room for growth in the next month or so.

So what should you do ?

Well, the heat is not going to fade away that fast neither. Tomorrow will be a red day. If you pick some stocks up, you may still be able to get 10-20% gain by February.

If you have already kept some, you may want to plan to profit take when it goes up another 5-10% in the next 2 weeks.

If you don't plan to profit take within the next couple of months anyway, the next obvious chance would be in Q4.

What are the jewels now if you haven't bought any yet ? Well, I have only concluded KNM and BAT for now. Keep KNM for these 2 months and BAT until year end.

Avoid warrants and all derivatives at all cost now!

How do I know tomorrow is going to be a red day ? Well, I just keep my eye on how the whole world market is going before ours are opened ... http://stock.malpf.com/

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Is Timing Really Everything ?



One of the commonly spread concepts in investment is that "Timing is Everything". The mother of all laws in investment is "Buy Low Sell High", hence knowing WHEN to buy and WHEN to sell is key to everything. Although this seems very logical and correct but it may NOT be the Best strategy one should apply in investment, especially in personal finance.

Timing is indeed very important but it doesn't have to be "Everything".

Timing can be further categorized into (1) timing the exact moment and (2) timing a general period. For example, is current market just over its peak now vs generally the market is still rather high now. While it seems impossible to predict the exact future but its always simpler to get a sense of what may happen next.

I predict that The sun will rise tomorrow morning

vs

The sun will be seen at 7:23am after the clouds are cleared off in 13 minutes

If an investor is Correct All The Time, focusing solely on timing would be a smart thing to do. Otherwise, timing become a variable that can help you as much as killing you. As a matter of fact, it will always help you sometimes and it will always kill you some other time. Hence, knowing what to do when your timing is right or wrong becomes even more important especially when you can't be Correct All The Time. Namely the profit take and cut lost strategies.

It takes 2 timings to get one complete transaction. Buying at the lowest today does not guarantee anything yet if it goes lower tomorrow. Selling (short) at the highest today may still have a higher tomorrows. Hence a perfect transaction that is built by 2 perfect timings can only be justified as an after event. In probability study, even if you can guarantee getting the timing Correct, but there is only half the chance you can get it Correct again twice in a row. In other words, even if you know 100% correct timing when to buy low, but there is only 50% chance that you can also sell high at the perfect timing.

So no matter which ways you look at it, "Timing is Everything" is Not a Guaranteed method. It can make you one in a million, but most people will not get anything positive out of this strategy especially long term wise.

Hence you may need to form an investment strategy that can cater for any timings and events. That would be a rock solid personal finance. If there are certain timings or events that your current profile cannot handle yet, then just temporary exclude investing during those timings and events. Until one day you learn enough to build a more solid personal finance to cater for those timings and events. Thats how malpf's wealth pyramid was introduced earlier, you start with something you don't really need to know like Fix Deposit and slowly learn more before handling mutual funds and stock investment.

However one of the positive human nature is to pursue greatness. Everyone want to hit jackpot no matter how slim the chances are. Timing may not be Everything but it is the Ultimate investment skill. Until today, there is no one formula for Guarantee Exact Timing (GET) in investment yet. And the person who come up with one will sit in the same hall with Newton and Einstein, most probably above all of them.

Hence, totally abandon timing an investment is as ignorant as adhere solely to it, if not worse. What should we do then ?

Build a rock solid personal finance first, then leave a 5% room in it as play money for you to practice timing in real life. This way, overall you will still have a good life ahead of you while not giving up any chances that you can be great! When you find out you are really good at timing, slowly increase your 5%. Otherwise lower the 5% or totally eliminate it especially when your 95% are not even earning more than 5%.


How about you ? How much are you relying on Timing in your life ?







Sunday, November 22, 2009

More Info : invest your EPF money in stock market direclty.


It was mentioned before that you can use your EPF money to invest directly in the stock market, especially through Jupiter and Amara. The main selling points are;
  1. cheaper than invest to Mutual Fund ( 5.5% ) vs 3% charged by Amara
  2. freedom to invest in any particular stock and not a whole portfolio.
Although Jupiter only charges 0.1% or minimum RM 10 brokerage fee but actually Amara, the licensed EPF withdrawal facilitator, have more charges other than the 3% one time drawn down fee.


The significant ones are
  • Transaction fee : 0.1% or minimum RM 15 per contract
  • Custody fee RM 0.005 per 1,000 shares per month
Add together with Jupiter's fee, your total brokerage fee may effectively be at 0.2% or minimum RM 25. So each MOTS (Minimum Optimized Trading Size) is RM 12,500. With RM 25,000 you can only make 2 transactions.

Assuming you fully load all your investment in the market and average price per share is RM 1. Then 25,000 shares /1,000 x 0.5 cent = RM 0.125 every month. 1 year would be RM 1.50. That would be 0.006% of your initial RM 25,000 investment.

At the end, you may still be paying 4-5% fee in the whole process. In contrast to mutual fund's 5.5%. If saving fee is your main target, perhaps becoming a mutual fund agent yourself could end up saving more. On the other hands, most of the EPF oriented mutual funds are charging less fee.

So if EPF gets a 5% return, you should be able to do more than 10% in order to 'invest yourself'. Else you may just be depleting your ASS - Automatic Saving System.

Also be reminded that if you make a lot of transactions, you may end up paying more than 6% fee.

Friday, November 20, 2009

You can use Your EPF money to invest in stocks ?

If you have enough money in your EPF, you can withdraw some of them into a stock trading account and invest for yourself. This may interest those who think they are more market savvy than EPF investment. ie. you were NOT happy with EPF past year performances or you think you can do better than them in future.

First of all, depends on what your age is, there is a certain amount of money you have to leave in account 1. After minus out this amount, you can withdraw up to 20% of whatever left in Account 1. However, the fund receiving party may not simply accept any small amount. A common minimum amount to be withdrawn is MYR 30,000.

Together with Amara, Jupiter Online recently has an offer where the minimum amount is lowered to MYR 25,000. This way, more EPF account holder can use their money for this purpose.

Fees being charged are
  • One time 3% drawn down fee. ( by Amara )
  • 0.1% or MYR 10 brokerage fee ( by Jupiter )
The following table shows how much you need in your Account 1 in your EPF so that you are eligible for this. If you have never withdrawn from your EPF before, Account 1 is 70% of your total EPF.

My advice ? Financially one shouldn't simply withdraw money from his Automatic Saving System. Statistically MOST people do not earn consistently from stock investment. Although many may think they did great but almost certainly they have miss calculated the power of compound saving. Not to mention most investors DO NO even have a systematic trading strategy and plans.

Assume foregoing EPF payout is 5% in average. Withdrawing would minus out 3% from the fund. So you can out perform EPF if you consistently gain 8.1% return. ( where does the extra 0.1% come from ?)

A good stock investor can get 6% to 12% so its still a viable option, especially if you agree with these ...
and perhaps some tools that can help you
  • see how the world moves before your market opens @ stock.malpf.com (the story)
  • use this tool to calculate price to buy with historical EPS and projected PE
Be reminded that the best investment gurus like Buffet and Benjamin only out perform market by 6.46%, full story here.

Those are just recommendation base on finance and statistic. If you personally hate EPF or simply don't trust them with your money, you probably just want to take all out despite everything else. Keeping your money in the stock broker account usually gives you a slightly lower than Fix Deposit interest anyway.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Bursa Malaysia teaches Don't Buy And Hold


This is one of the Golden Rules from Bursa Malaysia teaching people how to trade Malaysia stock market.

This is the topic content and my highlight in RED.


The Malaysian stock market is one of the strongest and sometimes most dynamic markets in the world.

While the market has always recovered from falls, the same cannot be said for individual companies. Even during a booming market, some companies can suffer significant losses.

Trade only on an uptrend and sell the poor performers, this will make it impossible to experience a large loss. This is the secret to outperforming the market and achieving a consistently superior return.

Undertake some research on the Bursa Malaysia or in a local investment paper. List three shares that have showed decreased performance recently and three shares that have showed increased performance recently.


Did you get that ? "IMPOSSIBLE to LOSE A LOT" !! What a way to set GOAL in stock investment !! Furthermore, making MANY small loses is as bad as making ONE big lost. As a matter of fact, many small loses may actually be worse because you didn't feel the pain and didn't realize how much you have lost. As in Boiling Frog story.

Compares that with the Number 1 TOP stock investor in the world ...

What they should have said is to Employ A proper Stop Loss Strategy. Aim to be right and learn until you make more correct decisions, that is what the game is all about. But just in case you are wrong, preserve your capital allowing you to 'COME BACK' by adopting a stop loss strategy. When investing in a fundamentally strong business, it takes patience and sometimes ignorance to just buy and hold.

Why does even Bursa make such a bias education ? Well, buffett has said it above. Bursa needs brokers, brokers need money, so Bursa also wants you to buy and sell as much as possible so that you pay them more transaction fees.

Sell it ! Don't Hold ! Else Bursa will DIE !!

Ya right ! You may just as well donate your money to Bursa ....

Friday, September 25, 2009

FREE lunch at Melaka and Penang

Jupiter is one of the cheapest online trading brokers in Malaysia. Partnering with Bursa Malaysia they are organizing seminars on stock market talks. LUNCH and TEA provided, FREE registration !!

3 October 9am to 4 pm
Avillion Legacy Melaka, 146 Jalan Hang Tuah, MELAKA

24 October 9 am to 4 pm
Northam All Suites Hotel, 55 Jalan Sultan Ahmad Shah, PENANG



More good news – ZERO BROKERAGE for one month for all who open a new online trading account with Jupiter Securities Sdn Bhd during our Bursa Malaysia Market Chat 2009

REGISTER NOW. Please call 03-2026 9691 or send an email to servicecenter@jssb.com.my. Bring your friends along.

If you plan to buy sell a lot this coming month, this should be a good opportunity. Else just go for the free fried mee.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Tick Size has NO effect ?


I am actually caught by surprise that the KLSE new tick size article received quite valid challenges. When I first hinted tick size is important for speculators, almost no one bothered so I was assuming there are no stock investors readers. Basically the argument is that tick size does NOT really affect stock investment.


For example if we buy 200 units stock at RM45. Brokerage is 0.1%, Clearing fee 0.03% and stamp duty RM 1 for every RM 1,000. The total you pay would be RM 9,020.70


Below chart shows how much you earn when the price move up and down in the old tick size system. If the price goes down to RM 44.50 (2 steps down), you would get back RM 8,879.43 or a lost of 1.57%. On the other hand, you earn 0.64% when the price goes up to RM 45.50 (2 steps up).




Below is another chart showing how much you earn in the new tick size system. As you may see, you lose and earn the same as in the old tick size system, ie. lose 1.57% @ RM 44.50 and earn 0.64% @ RM 45.50. All the new tick size system does is to add more points in between.



So tick gap size doesn't really affect investor's return. It is TRUE as long as you are looking at it as a value investor.


It was mentioned before that some people like smaller tick size while some others like it bigger. So there will also be cases where tick size is NOT important, like wise there are also scenarios where tick size becomes critical.


Above analysis is assuming we don't know anything about the stock so each step price up is the same as down. However, in real life we invest into stock for a reason, sometimes we even have a target price. For example, we buy the stock at RM 45.00 with the expectation to sell at RM 45.50. So when situation goes our way (UP), the tick size doesn't really matter as shown above.


However, sometimes it may go opposite with your plan. In old tick size, the next down step is RM 44.75, causing a lost of RM 91.34 in comparison to your initial planned 2 steps up profit of RM 57.47. In new tick size, it will go down in smaller steps ...


RM 44.98, causing a lost of RM 45.39 then
RM 44.96, lost RM 49.39
then lost of RM 53.38
and finally the 4th step down causing a lost of RM 57.38. Almost the same amount as the initially expected profit.
... then at 13th step down, a lost of RM 93.33, equivalent to old tick size 1 step down lost.


So if you cut lost in old tick size, you would have lost RM 91.34, that would be your total cost in this investment. The Win Lost ratio is 1 to 2.


In new tick size, you are given more choices. You could ignore the choices and cut lost after 13 steps down in which this smaller tick size will have no effect to you. You can also cut lost at the 4th step down if you want to set your win lost ratio at 1 to 1. Or in extreme case, you cut lost immediately when the price goes opposite and you think your initial assessment was wrong, your RM45.39 lost is almost half of RM 91.34 in old tick size.


In summary, the profit taking plan can remain the same in both bigger and smaller tick size systems. But cut lost strategy can be applied more dynamically in a smaller tick size system. Cutting lost can be viewed as cost. Hence in smaller tick size system, cost can be reduced ( by 50% in above example ). The actual cost saving factor would depend on your investment strategy, hence its not a DIRECT cost saving but a strategical one.



All these smaller steps have translated into more choices, and these choices allow you to apply investment strategy more dynamically. So far, most arguments are quantitative based. There are also qualitative or psychological effect. For example, in a smaller tick size environment, you are most likely get into the investment vehicle more often since you know you can get out of it easier and faster anyway when you were wrong. You may be less afraid and making more bold decisions, faster and more of them. You can learn faster with less tuition fee, which eventually improves one's decision making skill.


Full details of the data used ( best viewed with screen width > 800px )

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Tick Size Weightage, should it be lower or higher ?

Unlike MOTS which is pretty much factual, tick size effect on the other hand has many disputable intrepretations.

Tick size is the smallest gap one investment vehicle can move its price to. For example, RM 1.01 with a tick size of RM 0.01 can make its next smallest movement to either RM 1.00 or RM 1.02. It can NEVER be RM 1.005 nor RM 1.015 for example.

Tick size is usually defined within a range of price. For example, from RM 1.00 to RM 9.99, the tick size is RM 0.01.

Tick size weightage is the tick size over the price. For example, RM 0.01 over RM 1 is 1%.

Because the tick size is definied with a range of price, the tick size weightage will differ from one price to another. For example, RM 0.01 over RM 2 is only 0.5% in relation to 1% for the RM1 example.

Some people treats tick size as an investment cost. Because if you buy and sell immediately, the buy sell spread is usually 1 tick size away (only apply to liquid investment vehicles). So you will always be selling one stick size lower than your buying price. For example, if you have just buy a share price at RM 1.01 and you want to sell it immediately, the highest buyer price would most probably be at RM 1.00, hence you may lost an additional1% of your investment by selling immediately.

For this reason some people prefer smaller tick size. The smaller it is, the lowest cost it is.

Some other people want to sell stocks to make profit as soon as possible, ie. in one tick away. However, there are always some cost associate to investment. For example in stock investment, there are brokerage fee, stamp duty and clearing fee. Assume it is 1.68% excluding the tick size effect following this example. If you sell at next up tick size which would earn you 1%, minusing the cost you still lost 0.68%.

In this scenario, one would want the tick size to be bigger than its transaction cost. In above example, the tick size should be more than 1.68%. That way, one could earn money with just one tick away - Fast and Furious !

So as you may see, sometimes we want to tick size to be as small as possible, some other times we want the tick size to be larger than our transactional cost.

Some may have spotted the problematic argument above that if tick size is bigger than transactional cost, no doubt one can 'earn' when the tick goes up, but he will lose 'MORE' when the tick goes down. Hence he is taking a big risk to expect a small reward. Although that is true, but in order to earn money the 'fastest' way, you will need this big tick size. In other words, its a risk you will have to take if you want fast profit.

Therefore, people who want bigger tick size are usually speculators. Their aims are to earn money quick. Even in a falling market, it is still possible for speculator to earn from small up trend at a particular time.

On the other hand, people who want smaller tick size are usually longer term investor. They usually have a target price and such a target is usually quite many ticks away. Hence, the size of ONE tick doest NOT bother them that much. Except that if the tick size is small, they can earn more in long run by paying lower cost.

So Long Term Investors
wants smaller tick size
while
Speculators wants bigger tick size

Do you like smaller or bigger tick size ?